- PredictIt is a long-running US political prediction market that operates as a research project under a CFTC no-action letter.
- Revised relief raised the per-contract position cap to $3,500 and removed the old limit on traders per market.
- PredictIt takes a share of profits on winning trades rather than charging per contract.
- It suits small political bets; regulated exchanges offer more markets and no position caps.
This PredictIt review explains how PredictIt is regulated, what you can trade, how its fees and limits work, and how it compares with exchanges like Kalshi, as of October 2026. PredictIt has run political markets for years and is many people's first prediction market. It works differently from the newer CFTC-registered exchanges. Nothing here is advice; if the format is new to you, read what prediction markets are.
PredictIt: how it's regulated
PredictIt isn't a registered exchange. It operates under a no-action letter from the CFTC, under which staff agree not to recommend enforcement as long as the market stays within set conditions, as a research project linked to academia. The CFTC issued revised relief in 2025, and governance moved to a non-profit, the Prediction Market Research Consortium, advised by academics.
Aristotle, the company that operated PredictIt, also held a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse. In March 2026 it sold those entities to Underdog, which now runs them as UDX. Reports say Aristotle continues to operate PredictIt itself.
PredictIt at a glance
| Feature | PredictIt |
|---|---|
| Status | Research market under a CFTC no-action letter |
| Markets | Mostly US politics; some economics |
| Position limit | $3,500 per contract |
| Fees | Share of profits on winning trades |
| Funding | Bank transfer and card |
| Access | Web and app |
Fees and limits
Instead of a per-contract trading fee, PredictIt has historically taken 10% of the profit on each winning trade. That makes it cheap if you lose and costly if you win big, and it compounds if you trade in and out often. PredictIt changed its deposit and withdrawal terms in 2026, so check its current fee page before funding. The $3,500 cap per contract limits how much a single trader can stake on one outcome, which keeps it a market for small positions.
Compare the profit-share model with per-contract fees on regulated exchanges using our fee calculator.
Pros and cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Deep catalogue of US political questions | Not a registered exchange; relies on a no-action letter |
| No fee on losing trades | Profit share is expensive on big wins |
| Long track record and simple interface | Position cap per contract |
| Higher cap and no trader limit since 2025 | Narrow range beyond politics |
How it compares with regulated exchanges
Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-registered exchanges: no per-contract position cap of this kind, more categories, and fees charged per contract rather than on profits. PredictIt's strengths are its long list of US political questions, including state and local races and appointments, and a fee model that costs nothing on losing trades. Its weaknesses are the cap, the profit share on wins, and reliance on regulatory relief rather than registration. Prices for the same political question often differ between PredictIt and the exchanges, partly because the cap limits how much traders can move them.
Getting started
Create an account on PredictIt's website, verify your identity, and fund it by bank transfer or card. Check the current fee page first, start small, and read each market's rules, which spell out exactly how a political question resolves.
Who it suits
PredictIt suits US politics followers who want small positions on a wide range of political questions. Traders who want larger positions, more categories or exchange-style fees should compare it with Kalshi and Polymarket US in our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison and our platform comparison. See current political prices on our politics markets page.
Frequently asked questions
Is PredictIt legal?
PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter as a research market. It isn't a registered exchange, but the relief lets it run within set conditions, including a position cap.
What is the PredictIt limit?
Under the revised 2025 relief, the cap is $3,500 per contract, up from the old limit, and the cap on traders per market was removed.
Did Underdog buy PredictIt?
Underdog bought Aristotle's CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse in March 2026. Reports say Aristotle continues to operate PredictIt itself.