- As of October 6, 2026, the 200 tracked wallets held 6,985 open positions across 5,180 markets, worth $55.8M at current prices.
- The single largest line is No on JD Vance winning the 2028 presidential election: 15 wallets, $9.4M, bought at an average of 50.2¢ and now priced at 80¢. Another 17 wallets hold the Yes side at a 20¢ price, so the cohort is split, not unanimous.
- The most crowded positions are No on a U.S. invasion of Iran (19 wallets) and Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil's presidency (18 wallets), both well above their average entry.
- Only 13 of the 200 wallets earn mainly from market-making; 173 are directional traders. Treat the table as a record of what large accounts hold, not as advice.
This is the first of a recurring report built from public Polymarket data. Each day we snapshot the Polymarket leaderboards, keep a cohort of 200 wallets with a record of realized profit, and record their open positions. The figures below are aggregates from the October 6, 2026 snapshot. No wallet is named, a wallet is not a person (one trader can run several, and a wallet can be a hedge against a position elsewhere), and nothing here is a recommendation. How the cohort is selected is described on our methodology page. Kalshi data is not collected because Kalshi's terms do not permit storing it.
What the cohort is
The 200 wallets are drawn from Polymarket's profit leaderboards across categories and time windows. We sort each wallet into an archetype using one rule: if trading rebates, liquidity rewards and liquidity-provider profit make up at least half of its realized all-time profit, it is a maker (an account that earns by quoting both sides of a market). Otherwise it is directional (an account that earns by being right about outcomes).
On October 6 the split was 13 maker wallets (6.5%), 173 directional (86.5%) and 14 we could not classify. The median wallet had made 845 trades in its lifetime, and 46 of the 200 appeared on three or more leaderboards, a rough sign of consistency rather than one big win.
This is a leaderboard-selected group. Research on Polymarket accounts (Gomez-Cram, Guo, Jensen and Kung) finds only about 3.1% of accounts show statistically detectable skill, and roughly 60% of lucky winners revert afterward. A top-200 cohort will contain both kinds. We report what it holds; we do not claim the holdings are smart.
The ten largest positions by dollar exposure
The table ranks open positions by the cohort's combined dollar value at current prices on October 6, 2026. "Entry" is the dollar-weighted average price the cohort paid; "Now" is the market price at the snapshot. Prices are in cents, so 80¢ means the market puts the outcome at roughly 80%. If you are new to reading prices this way, see how to read a contract price as a probability.
| Market (outcome held) | Wallets | Exposure | Entry | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance wins 2028 presidential election (No) | 15 | $9.4M | 50.2¢ | 80¢ | +29.8 pts |
| JD Vance wins 2028 presidential election (Yes) | 17 | $2.4M | 49.7¢ | 20¢ | -29.6 pts |
| Flávio Bolsonaro wins 2026 Brazilian presidency (Yes) | 18 | $1.7M | 55.9¢ | 84¢ | +28.4 pts |
| U.S. invades Iran before 2027 (No) | 19 | $1.6M | 77.5¢ | 84.5¢ | +7.0 pts |
| Iranian regime falls before 2027 (No) | 14 | $1.4M | 81.9¢ | 94.5¢ | +12.6 pts |
| Spain wins vs Croatia, Oct 6 (Yes) | 5 | $943K | 86.3¢ | 99.95¢ | +13.6 pts |
| No change in Fed rates, October 2026 meeting (Yes) | 10 | $849K | 72.8¢ | 82.5¢ | +9.7 pts |
| Lula wins 2026 Brazilian presidency (No) | 13 | $783K | 69.1¢ | 84.5¢ | +15.4 pts |
| Ocasio-Cortez wins 2028 Democratic nomination (No) | 4 | $749K | 50.1¢ | 82¢ | +32.0 pts |
| Team Falcons beat Natus Vincere (Team Falcons) | 6 | $742K | 58.1¢ | 44.7¢ | -13.4 pts |
The Vance market is a disagreement, not a consensus
The cohort's biggest line is $9.4M of No on Vance winning in 2028, held by 15 wallets at an average entry near 50¢. But 17 wallets, more than hold the No, own the Yes side at a similar entry of 49.7¢. The market has since moved to 80¢ No, so as of October 6 the No holders are up about 30 points and the Yes holders down about the same. Both groups bought near a coin flip. The election is more than two years away and the market resolves on who is declared the winner, not on who is favoured now.
A related market, Vance winning the 2028 Republican nomination, is held Yes by 10 wallets at a 48¢ entry and now 49.4¢. The cohort's bet is against a general-election win, not the nomination.
Brazil: positioned for the runoff, and the listed end date is misleading
Brazil's first round was held on October 4, 2026 and sent Flávio Bolsonaro and the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to a runoff on October 25. The cohort is heavily on one side: 18 wallets hold Yes on Bolsonaro ($1.7M, entry 55.9¢, now 84¢) and 13 hold No on Lula ($783K, entry 69.1¢, now 84.5¢). Those two positions express the same view, and the two prices are consistent with each other for a two-candidate runoff.
Ten wallets still hold Yes on Lula at an average entry of 42.2¢ against a current price of 15.5¢, a loss of 26.7 points at the snapshot. Note that the pack lists an end date of October 5 for these markets, which is a listing field, not the resolution date. The contracts remain open until the runoff result, so this is a live position, not a settled one.
The Iran markets are where the cohort most agrees
By headcount rather than dollars, the most crowded position is No on the U.S. invading Iran before 2027: 19 wallets, 9.5% of the cohort, with $1.6M at a 77.5¢ entry and an 84.5¢ price. Fourteen wallets hold No on the Iranian regime falling before 2027 at 94.5¢, up from 81.9¢. Polymarket charges a 0% taker fee on geopolitics markets, so these positions carry no fee drag. The catch is the payoff shape: a 94.5¢ contract earns at most 5.5¢ and can lose 94.5¢. Our politics market pages track related questions on Kalshi.
The October Fed meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its next decision on October 28, 2026. Ten wallets hold Yes on "no change" ($849K, entry 72.8¢, now 82.5¢). Twelve wallets, more accounts but less money, hold Yes on a 25 basis point increase ($314K, entry 37.9¢, now 16.5¢, down 21.4 points). In dollars the cohort expects a hold; the hike is its clearest losing bet so far. Kalshi's Fed markets are on the economics markets page.
Smaller crowded positions worth noting
Fourteen wallets hold Yes on the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026, but the total is only $81K at a 12.2¢ entry and a 5¢ price: a cheap longshot held by many accounts in small size. Twelve wallets hold Yes on Democrats controlling both the Senate and the House after the midterms ($556K, entry 62¢, now 64.5¢). Ten wallets hold Yes on Nicolás Maduro still leading Venezuela at the end of 2026, at 70.4¢ against a 43.8¢ entry, a market worth reading alongside our account of the Venezuela resolution controversy.
Where this can go wrong
- Fees. Polymarket's taker fee is C × rate × p × (1−p), with a 4% rate in politics and no maker fee. Buying 100 contracts at 80¢ in a politics market costs about 64¢ in fees. That is small, but it is paid on every entry and exit. Run your own size through the fee calculator before copying any line here.
- Liquidity. Exposure is marked at the last price. A $9.4M position cannot be sold at 80¢ without moving the market. Entry versus current price is a paper figure.
- Wash trading. A Columbia study (Sirolly, Ma, Kanoria and Sethi) estimates that about 25% of Polymarket volume from 2022 to 2025 was wash trading, with roughly 14% of wallets flagged. Leaderboard profit figures are not immune to this.
- A wallet can be a hedge. A No on Vance may offset a position on another venue we cannot see.
- Survivorship. Akey, Gregoire, Harvie and Martineau find the top 1% of accounts capture about 76.5% of profits. The cohort is drawn from that tail; it shows where big money sits, not where it will sit next month.
- Short-dated sports lines. The Spain and Counter-Strike matches in the table resolve within a day of the snapshot. Spain was at 99.95¢, effectively decided; the Falcons position was underwater by 13.4 points. Both will drop out of the next report.
What would change this
Next week's report will include the first comparison against this snapshot, showing which positions the cohort added to and which it exited. The Brazil runoff on October 25 and the Fed decision on October 28 will settle three of the ten largest lines. If the Vance No position shrinks as its price rises, that is profit-taking; if it grows, the cohort is pressing the view. For background, start with what prediction markets are and our Polymarket review.
As of October 6, 2026, the picture is simple: the cohort's money is concentrated in long-dated U.S. politics, in Brazil's runoff, and in bets that the status quo holds in Iran and at the Fed. Whether those are good bets is a question the next several snapshots will begin to answer.