- Several bills in the House would ban congressional prediction market trading. Two are the bipartisan PREDICT Act and the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act.
- The PREDICT Act, introduced March 25, 2026, would cover Members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children, the President and Vice President, and political appointees. Its penalty is a civil penalty of 10 percent of the transaction value plus disgorgement of profits.
- The Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act passed out of the House Administration Committee in June 2026. As of October 19, 2026, we found no record that it has passed the full House or become law.
- None of this changes what you can trade today. It is about who may trade, not about the markets themselves.
If you are searching for the proposals to ban congressional prediction market trading, here is the short version: members of Congress are the target of at least two House bills, and a House committee has already voted one of them forward. This article explains what each bill covers, using the sponsors' own descriptions, and what to watch next. It is a plain-language summary of public documents, not legal advice or a forecast of whether any bill will pass. If the market format is new to you, start with what prediction markets are.
Why lawmakers want to ban congressional prediction market trading
A prediction market lets people trade contracts that pay out if an event happens, such as an election result, a vote or a government decision. The worry behind these bills is simple: a person who helps decide, or learns early about, a government action could trade on its outcome. The bills try to close that gap for the people closest to such decisions.
Insider trading in this sense means trading on information that is not public, using a position that gives early access. The bills discussed here are aimed at that kind of conduct on government and political outcomes.
The PREDICT Act
The Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, shortened to the PREDICT Act, was introduced on March 25, 2026 by Representatives Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski, a bipartisan pair. According to the sponsors' press release, the bill would prohibit "Members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children;" "the President and Vice President; and political appointees," from "trading on the outcomes of political events, policy decisions, and other government actions on prediction markets."
The release describes the penalty as "a civil penalty equal to 10 percent of the value of the prohibited transaction," along with "full disgorgement of any profits earned, to be paid into the U.S. Treasury." Disgorgement means handing back the gains. The release also says the covered group includes "individuals serving in Executive Schedule positions, among others," so the exact reach depends on the bill text, which we recommend reading on congress.gov.
The Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act
A second House bill, H.R. 9367, the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act, is sponsored by House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil. Representative Ashley Hinson, a supporter, wrote in a press release dated June 25, 2026: "Yesterday, the Hinson-backed Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act passed out of the House Administration Committee." In the House, passing out of committee means the committee voted to send the bill to the full chamber. It is a step, not the finish.
The same release calls on House Republican leadership to schedule a floor vote. We did not find a floor vote or Senate action on the bill in the sources we checked. We could not open the bill text on congress.gov during research, so we do not describe its penalty schedule here; read the text there.
The two House bills at a glance
| Bill | Date | Who is covered | Status we found |
|---|---|---|---|
| PREDICT Act (Smith and Budzinski) | Introduced March 25, 2026 | Members of Congress, spouses and dependent children, the President and Vice President, political appointees | Introduced; no later action found in the sources we read |
| Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act, H.R. 9367 (Steil) | Committee passage reported June 25, 2026 | Lawmakers; see the bill text for the full list | Passed out of the House Administration Committee; no floor vote found |
What these bills would and would not change
The bills restrict a group of people. They do not close any market or change how a venue lists contracts. A Kalshi or Gemini contract on a political question would trade as before for everyone outside the covered group. For how venues and states are fighting over what can be listed, see how Kalshi's legal battles with states affect what you can bet on.
For ordinary traders the practical effect is on how to read political prices. Political questions are one of the places where informed money can matter most, which is why the idea of insiders trading draws attention. You can see current political prices on our politics markets page, and read how one regulated-exchange alternative works in our PredictIt review.
What to watch next
- A House floor vote on H.R. 9367. A committee vote alone does not make a bill law.
- Senate action. Any bill also has to pass the Senate and be signed.
- Final text. Who counts as covered and how a penalty is set can change in amendments.
- Enforcement. A ban on paper depends on who checks trades and how.
Where this can go wrong
Congressional calendars move slowly and bills often stall, so a bill's introduction says little about the odds of it becoming law. Our summaries rely on sponsors' press releases, which describe a bill in the way its authors want it understood. The bill text controls, and we could not read it directly. Other proposals exist, including Senate measures and rules changes within each chamber, that we did not verify against primary sources and so do not describe. Check congress.gov for the current status before relying on anything here, and see our methodology for how we handle sources.
Frequently asked questions
Is there a bill to ban Congress from prediction market trading?
Yes. The PREDICT Act, introduced March 25, 2026, would prohibit Members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children, the President and Vice President, and political appointees from trading on political outcomes on prediction markets. A second House bill, the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act, passed out of the House Administration Committee.
Has Congress banned prediction market trading yet?
Not as far as we found. As of October 19, 2026, the sources we read show a committee vote on one House bill and no floor vote or enactment. Check congress.gov for the latest.
What is the penalty under the PREDICT Act?
The sponsors describe a civil penalty equal to 10 percent of the value of the prohibited transaction, plus disgorgement of any profits, paid into the U.S. Treasury.
Does this stop me from trading on Kalshi?
No. The bills target specific officials and their families. They do not ban prediction markets for the public.
These bills may change, so treat this page as a snapshot of October 2026. Nothing here is financial or legal advice.