Product launches, AI milestones, company events and regulation. Prices are the market's probability in cents.
50 markets · prices as of . Refreshes every few minutes.
| Market | Leading outcome | Price | 24h volume | Closes | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 20268 outcomes | Above 560 | 9700¢9700% implied | 276K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? | Before 2030 | 6000¢6000% implied | 95K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? | Before 2030 | 2400¢2400% implied | 95K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in 202613 outcomes | Above 97 million | 9900¢9900% implied | 87K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Courts consider Apple a monopoly? | Before 2030 | 3400¢3400% implied | 61K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? | Before 2035 | 4600¢4600% implied | 56K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will nuclear fusion be achieved?3 outcomes | Before 2040 | 5000¢5000% implied | 50K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Tesla total deliveries in 20269 outcomes | Above 1.5 million | 9800¢9800% implied | 50K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Meta headcount in 20265 outcomes | Above 65000 | 9100¢9100% implied | 49K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Amazon headcount in 20268 outcomes | Above 1500000 | 9500¢9500% implied | 39K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Google headcount in 20267 outcomes | Above 188000 | 9800¢9800% implied | 30K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| United Airlines passengers flown in 202610 outcomes | Above 178 million | 9900¢9900% implied | 24K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?5 outcomes | United States | 5700¢5700% implied | 22K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| What sector will OpenAI be assigned to?12 outcomes | Information Technology | 8700¢8700% implied | 19K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? | Before 2050 | 2800¢2800% implied | 17K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?8 outcomes | At least 60% | 8100¢8100% implied | 17K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?6 outcomes | Goldman Sachs | 8000¢8000% implied | 16K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 202614 outcomes | Above 780 thousand | 9500¢9500% implied | 14K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Tesla headcount in 20266 outcomes | Above 120000 | 10000¢10000% implied | 13K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will SpaceX acquire any major U.S. telecom business before 2028? | Yes | 3900¢3900% implied | 13K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Reddit daily active uniques in 202610 outcomes | Above 136 million | 9300¢9300% implied | 12K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Which banks will take OpenAI public?15 outcomes | Stifel Financial | 4100¢4100% implied | 12K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? | Before 2030 | 5000¢5000% implied | 10K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?6 outcomes | Before Jan 1, 2031 | 4800¢4800% implied | 10K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? | Before 2028 | 5400¢5400% implied | 9K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Tesla total production in 20269 outcomes | Above 1.5 million | 9900¢9900% implied | 7K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?4 outcomes | Before 2030 | 6700¢6700% implied | 6K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Apple headcount in 20266 outcomes | Above 164000 | 9100¢9100% implied | 6K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?3 outcomes | Before 2028 | 9000¢9000% implied | 5K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Meta family daily active people in 20268 outcomes | Above 3.66 billion | 9200¢9200% implied | 5K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?5 outcomes | Before 2028 | 8800¢8800% implied | 3K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip 5 outcomes | Before 2028 | 9600¢9600% implied | 3K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will Rippling win its lawsuit against Deel? | Before 2028 | 6000¢6000% implied | 3K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Southwest Airlines seats flown in 20266 outcomes | Above 225 million | 8900¢8900% implied | 3K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| US test scores in Reading in 2026?3 outcomes | Significant decrease | 5000¢5000% implied | 3K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?5 outcomes | Before Jul 1, 2028 | 9500¢9500% implied | 2K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?6 outcomes | Before 2035 | 8300¢8300% implied | 2K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| How much will the Tesla Roadster cost?7 outcomes | At least $150,000 | 9100¢9100% implied | 1K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| US test scores in Math in 2026?3 outcomes | No significant difference | 4900¢4900% implied | 1K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Nvidia headcount in fiscal 20276 outcomes | Above 46000 | 9600¢9600% implied | 1K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will Anthropic release Claude 6?5 outcomes | Before Dec 31, 2027 | 9200¢9200% implied | 1K contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launch5 outcomes | Before Jan 1, 2028 | 9600¢9600% implied | 921 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?5 outcomes | Before 2028 | 7800¢7800% implied | 744 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?5 outcomes | Hodge Conjecture | 4900¢4900% implied | 458 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will P vs NP be resolved?6 outcomes | Before 2035 | 5500¢5500% implied | 301 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?6 outcomes | Before 2040 | 7300¢7300% implied | 260 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?5 outcomes | Before 2040 | 4300¢4300% implied | 203 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?6 outcomes | Before 2032 | 7200¢7200% implied | 203 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?2 outcomes | Anthropic | 9500¢9500% implied | 202 contracts | Trade on Kalshi | |
| Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?3 outcomes | Before Jan 20, 2029 | 5000¢5000% implied | 198 contracts | Trade on Kalshi |
Kalshi volume is in contracts; Gemini volume in dollars. Not financial advice. Work out the fee on a trade with the fee calculator, or browse all categories.